Despite the favorable forecasts of financiers for 2016-2017, the Russian economy is far from ideal. The global crisis, significant currency fluctuations and sanctions deal a serious blow to it. Economic instability and the slow rise of the ruble are forcing the public to save in euros. This currency is famous for its consistently high rates. And recent expert forecasts have shown that in 2018 (in the first half) the euro exchange rate in Russia will grow. This fact was confirmed by Sberbank of the Russian Federation. But will this trend continue?
Reasons for the instability of the euro
Experts' forecasts come true somewhere by 67-82%. It is rather difficult to say more exactly how the currency will behave, especially if the scenario is drawn up for a long period - a year or two. Why? Everything is simple. In the case of the European currency, its fluctuations directly depend on the demand for the dollar - the stabilization of one unit leads to a fall or slowdown in the growth of another. They are interconnected, so the circuit works in both directions. But the growth of the American currency is not the only reason for the euro jumps.
Experts make a forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2018, based on the state of the economy in the EU countries. The cultural, social, and political situation within the borders of these states is also important, because for holding financial transactions and calculations they use it. This means that the tense political situation in one of the EU states will lead to a loss of positions monetary unit. This is the situation in the world and Europe.
What happens to the European currency in Russia. It has gone up in value lately. Reasons for this:
- sanctions imposed on the state by the European Union;
- an increase in the price of fuel, the price of which increased by 11-14.5%;
- decline in oil exports to the West, as a result of its cheapening;
- prior inflation;
- the state of the Russian economy, etc.
As long as there are sanctions preventing free trade, there is no need to talk about the stability of the euro exchange rate. The price for 100€ will be prohibitive. Until Russia restores stable and regular supplies of oil to the West, the rate forecast will differ from reality.
What forecasts for 2018 do government experts make?
Leading economists of Russia and the Ministry of Finance do not predict sharp changes for the worse in the future. Despite the fact that it is extremely difficult to offer an exact scenario for the development of the exchange rate, according to analysts and officials, the value of the EU currency will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. But there has not been such a price on the financial market for more than 5 years. Such a positive development scenario does not inspire confidence, especially if you study the tables of the behavior of the euro by months, which have already been posted on their pages big banks Russia.
Experts working in Sberbank predict the following scenario.
The forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, shows that in 2018 the euro exchange rate will continue to be unstable. The price for 1 € in the first months of next year will increase to the borders of 85-90 rubles. At the same time, future events in the world “hint” that this figure is far from the limit. The main news of August-September 2017 was the issue under consideration of Britain's exit from the EU. If the exclusion is implemented (more than half of the British voted for the country's exit from the European Union), there will be no need to talk about the stability of the price of the EU currency.
But still, analysts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are building optimistic scenarios, assuming the soonest completion of the crisis in foreign exchange market. Hence such low figures for the euro for the period of 2018, which ministry analysts announced in the hope that oil will rise in price by the middle of next year - the price is expected to rise to $80 per barrel. But analysts from independent Russian agencies offer the following oil forecasts for next year.
According to the table, the maximum rise in price, which should be expected at the very beginning of the year, is 60-65 per barrel.
What to expect: growth and depreciation of the euro?
The opinions of independent experts and economists differ. The discrepancies in the scenarios are up to 5-12 rubles. Many foreign experts believe that the EU currency rate will rise to the mark of 100 rubles by mid-2018. This figure is explained by the fact that the Russian economy will not be able to recover in the coming months due to existing sanctions and a decrease in the level of exports of goods. Although not all Western experts predict such a leap. Analysts of one of the largest banking holdings in the US - Morgan Stanley - see no reason for the euro to rise above the mark of 80 rubles. This is their latest forecast, based on the growth rate of the Russian economy. In 2018, growth will be at least 1.78%.
Despite disagreements in figures, both Russian and foreign analysts and economists are convinced that December 2017 and January next year will be months of active euro growth in Russia. Financial experts note that sharp jumps in the exchange rate are not expected, but they warn of a possible decrease in the cost if Russia manages to restore oil sales at a higher price. But still, you should not rely on the accuracy of the scenarios they offer.
Looking at a fresh analytical scenario, it is advised to take into account the situation in the country and the world, in particular in the EU. Economists recommend that those who have already saved a certain amount in euros do not change it in the near future. And for those Russians who would like to buy the currency, it is wiser to wait for the price to fall. It is predicted to be in November 2017 (a slight decrease in cost - by 2.4%) and from September 2018.
Updated on 05/11/2019 23:20
What is the euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow?
Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow is 73.24 rub., the minimum rate is 72.21, and the maximum is 74.27 rubles. The current Euro rate is 73.23. Today the rate has not changed in comparison with yesterday's close of the day at 73.23.
Will the Euro rise or fall in a week?
Euro exchange rate forecast in a week 73.50 rub., minimum 72.47, maximum 74.53 rub. Thus, for a week the Euro exchange rate will increase on the 0.27 rub. relative to the course is now at 73.23 p. See the table below for a more detailed forecast by day for the week.
What is the Euro exchange rate forecast for May?
Euro exchange rate forecast for May 72.21-76.08, at the end of May 74.47 rub. At the beginning of May, the Euro exchange rate was 72.48, i.e. the monthly change will be +2.7%.
What Euro exchange rate is predicted for June?
Euro exchange rate forecast for June - 75.74 R. at the end of June, the minimum rate during the month is 72.33, the maximum is 76.80. Monthly change +1.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for every day in the table
| the date | Day | Min | Well | Max |
| 13.05 | Monday | 72.21 | 73.24 | 74.27 |
| 14.05 | Tuesday | 72.59 | 73.62 | 74.65 |
| 15.05 | Wednesday | 72.21 | 73.24 | 74.27 |
| 16.05 | Thursday | 72.29 | 73.32 | 74.35 |
| 17.05 | Friday | 72.47 | 73.50 | 74.53 |
| 20.05 | Monday | 72.33 | 73.36 | 74.39 |
| 21.05 | Tuesday | 72.93 | 73.97 | 75.01 |
| 22.05 | Wednesday | 72.95 | 73.99 | 75.03 |
| 23.05 | Thursday | 73.31 | 74.35 | 75.39 |
| 24.05 | Friday | 73.15 | 74.19 | 75.23 |
| 27.05 | Monday | 73.50 | 74.54 | 75.58 |
| 28.05 | Tuesday | 73.59 | 74.63 | 75.67 |
| 29.05 | Wednesday | 73.98 | 75.03 | 76.08 |
| 30.05 | Thursday | 73.58 | 74.62 | 75.66 |
| 31.05 | Friday | 73.43 | 74.47 | 75.51 |
| 03.06 | Monday | 73.70 | 74.75 | 75.80 |
| 04.06 | Tuesday | 73.37 | 74.41 | 75.45 |
| 05.06 | Wednesday | 73.12 | 74.16 | 75.20 |
| 06.06 | Thursday | 72.70 | 73.73 | 74.76 |
| 07.06 | Friday | 72.70 | 73.73 | 74.76 |
| 10.06 | Monday | 72.71 | 73.74 | 74.77 |
| 11.06 | Tuesday | 72.95 | 73.99 | 75.03 |
| 12.06 | Wednesday | 72.33 | 73.36 | 74.39 |
| 13.06 | Thursday | 72.37 | 73.40 | 74.43 |
What is the euro forecast for July?
Euro exchange rate forecast for July is in the range of 73.46-75.74, at the end of July 74.50 rub. Change for the month -1.6%.
What is the Euro exchange rate forecast until the end of 2019?
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2019 year: the rate will trade in the range of 71.09-76.80. Forecast for the end of December 2019 72.10 rub.
What will the Euro rate be like in 2020?
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020 year: rate at the end of December 2020 - 75.40 rub. And during the year the rate will fluctuate in the range of 68.98-76.48.
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2019, 2020 and 2021
| Month | Start | Min-Max | End | Total,% | |
| 2019 | |||||
| May | 72.48 | 72.21-76.08 | 74.47 | +2.7% | |
| Jun | 74.47 | 72.33-76.80 | 75.74 | +4.5% | |
| Jul | 75.74 | 73.46-75.74 | 74.50 | +2.8% | |
| Aug | 74.50 | 72.22-74.50 | 73.25 | +1.1% | |
| sen | 73.25 | 72.23-74.29 | 73.26 | +1.1% | |
| Oct | 73.26 | 71.29-73.31 | 72.30 | -0.2% | |
| But I | 72.30 | 72.30-74.81 | 73.78 | +1.8% | |
| Dec | 73.78 | 71.09-73.78 | 72.10 | -0.5% | |
| 2020 | |||||
| Jan | 72.10 | 69.05-72.10 | 70.03 | -3.4% | |
| Feb | 70.03 | 70.03-73.85 | 72.83 | +0.5% | |
| Mar | 72.83 | 71.38-73.40 | 72.39 | -0.1% | |
| Apr | 72.39 | 71.85-73.89 | 72.87 | +0.5% | |
| May | 72.87 | 68.98-72.87 | 69.96 | -3.5% | |
| Jun | 69.96 | 69.96-73.78 | 72.76 | +0.4% | |
| Jul | 72.76 | 72.76-75.60 | 74.56 | +2.9% | |
| Aug | 74.56 | 72.37-74.56 | 73.40 | +1.3% | |
| sen | 73.40 | 73.00-75.08 | 74.04 | +2.2% | |
| Oct | 74.04 | 72.59-74.65 | 73.62 | +1.6% | |
| But I | 73.62 | 73.62-76.48 | 75.42 | +4.1% | |
| Dec | 75.42 | 74.34-76.46 | 75.40 | +4.0% | |
| 2021 | |||||
| Jan | 75.40 | 73.08-75.40 | 74.12 | +2.3% | |
| Feb | 74.12 | 71.33-74.12 | 72.34 | -0.2% | |
| Mar | 72.34 | 72.34-76.28 | 75.23 | +3.8% | |
| Apr | 75.23 | 75.23-79.34 | 78.24 | +7.9% | |
| May | 78.24 | 78.24-81.25 | 80.13 | +10.6% | |
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Pavel Sigal, First Vice-President of the public organization "Supports of Russia": The exchange rate of the ruble against the euro and the dollar will slightly and not for long, but still strengthen. The underlying factor will be the price of Brent oil, which has risen to $60 per barrel and is likely to stay in the established range if the OPEC + deal manages to agree on a reduction in oil production.
The weakening factor for the ruble will also be the price of oil and the OPEC+ deal. An increase in the extraction of raw materials will reduce its cost and, accordingly, the ruble will lose ground in relation to foreign currencies. Another factor that puts pressure on the ruble may be the policy of the Central Bank, which consistently lowers the rate, trying not to clamp money supply, which is already declining due to the revocation of licenses from banks.
The dollar rate in November, according to our estimates, will stay in the range of 57.50-60.50. The euro range is 67.50-70.30. Buying currency can be advised to those who plan to go on vacation abroad in November-December.
November is the month of OPEC
Andrey Dyachenko, head of the department of the financial company Private Solutions Castle Family Office in Russia and the CIS: The main event of the month, which can have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate, will be the OPEC press conference on November 7th. At it, the cartel will present its view of the medium and long term — a detailed analysis and forecast of the development of the global economy and the balance of supply and demand for hydrocarbon fuels. The details and figures may come as a surprise to the market. But the impact of this event will be short-lived, as the annual meeting of all OPEC members will be held at the end of November - also a very important event for the global economy. Therefore, having reacted to the forecast within a few days, the market is likely to calm down until the end of November.
Obviously, the budget would now be "more pleasant" with a higher dollar and euro against the ruble. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance, together with the Central Bank, is pursuing a policy of reducing the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on fluctuations in energy prices on the world market. Taking into account external factors, as well as the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, I assume that in November efforts will be aimed at maintaining stability with a gradual transition to a smooth weakening of the ruble. At the same time, one should not expect significant changes - a decrease in the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market is not yet to be expected.
At the end of November, I expect the dollar exchange rate to be closer to 59 rubles, the euro exchange rate to 70.
The dollar will break through 60 rubles
Artem Deev, Leading Analyst at the financial company Amarkets: Just like a month ago, few people believe in an improvement in the domestic economic situation in Russia, as well as the ability of oil to stay above $60 per barrel. The October rise in oil prices was due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, threatening global supplies of hydrocarbons.
Increased demand for oil was also the result of rumors that OPEC and other producers are ready to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of next year. Let me remind you that a decision on this can be made as early as November 30, when the next official meeting of OPEC will take place in Vienna. However, higher oil prices could energize US shale oil producers, which have undermined OPEC efforts more than once. Data from Baker Hughes last Friday showed that the number of active oil rigs in the US rose by 1 unit to 737. This is the first increase in four weeks. I believe that the number of terminals will only grow further, exerting a dominating effect on black gold quotes. After that, fears will return to the market that the OPEC + deal is not working, and Brent is fundamentally overbought. Quotes will crawl down with the potential to consolidate below $55 per barrel. Against the background of the ongoing cycle of monetary policy easing in Russia, this will be quite enough to return the dollar exchange rate above 60 rubles in the next month.
The Central Bank made the ruble stable
Ivan Karyakin, investment analyst at Global FX financial company: The main trend of autumn is the stabilization of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. Serious reasons are needed to change the existing balance. Nevertheless, there have been a lot of them over the past two months, and the ruble continued to trade in the range of 57-58.4 per dollar. First of all, the price of BRENT oil rose from $50 to $60 per barrel. The key rate was reduced twice, and only on Friday we saw a significant reaction in the form of a weakening of the ruble against the dollar to the levels of 58.6, but the growth of oil prices on the same day returned the dollar to 58 rubles.
It is clear that the exchange rate of the Russian currency has recently reduced its dependence on oil, and actions Central Bank also do not contribute to strong fluctuations of the ruble. Moreover, the stabilization of the ruble is a direct result of the actions of the regulator, which managed to find effective levers of influence on the exchange rate. national currency. A stable ruble makes Russian bond yields very attractive and makes it easier for the Treasury to borrow in the market to finance the federal budget deficit.
Of course, the effectiveness of the Central Bank's actions to stabilize the ruble became possible only in the context of rising and stabilizing oil prices. These factors are interdependent, but on the horizon of one month they will continue to work. The exchange rate of the ruble against the euro is a value dependent on the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar. And the weakening of the euro against the dollar at the end of last week fully confirmed this formula. After the ECB meeting on Thursday, the euro weakened against the dollar and fell in price by the ruble.
Almost every person tends to closely monitor the exchange rate, realizing how difficult the current situation is. In addition, there are more than enough opportunities to change the situation. What should you count on? Will there be changes for good or for bad?
Features of the state economy
The Russian economy is currently in recession. In this regard, it is difficult for experts and analysts to make reliable forecasts and understand how the situation will develop in November 2017. Experts agree only that you need to keep savings, since the right period for spending has not yet come. Professionals take into account numerous factors before making a recommendation regarding investing in several types of currencies or holding finances in the Russian ruble.
In recent years, there has been a weakening of the ruble against the euro. At the same time, in some periods, a slight strengthening can be noted, which, unfortunately, is not stable.
In order to ensure that unnecessary risks to the public are eliminated, the Ministry economic development must provide an official forecast annually. In addition, up-to-date data allows you to correctly form a budget. Regardless of how relevant and thoughtful the forecast is, you need to be prepared for the fact that the existing data may differ from the real situation, because no one has yet canceled unforeseen factors.
How factors can affect the euro exchange rate in November 2017
Experts suggest that the value of the euro will not be stable. In addition, the indicators will still be quite high. It is necessary to take into account the peculiarities of the political situation, the presence of additional sanctions. Depending on how the state develops, the situation can change dramatically.
On the state economy largely influenced by the cost of oil, since the main profit Russian Federation brings the oil field. The introduction of sanctions can lead to a significant reduction in prices for oil, as well as oil products. If there are sudden changes in this situation, the forecast is actually difficult to make.
After Russia faced sanctions, agriculture and industry began to develop successfully in the country. Thanks to this trend, it is possible to guarantee the rapid development of agriculture and industry.
What could be the course
Without a doubt, it is impossible to say that the euro will return to 60 rubles. However, many experts are sure that the rate of about 70 rubles per euro can be. The most important thing is that the forecast for a rise in the price of a barrel of oil will come true.
At the same time, there are certain nuances. For example, sanctions were lifted from Iran. This circumstance reduces the opportunities for the ruble to become stronger. Experts are confident that this situation will lead to the fact that the exchange rate turned out to be stable, but at the same time it would correspond to 80-82 rubles per euro.
Analysts tend to suggest possible changes in the exchange rate. At the same time, they take into account that the situation can change. Experts understand that any forecasts may turn out to be erroneous, as many factors influence the exchange rate.
What factors affect the euro exchange rate
AT without fail you need to understand what factors determine the current euro exchange rate. So what parameters should be taken into account?
- The interest rate of the ECB is one of the most important factors, and it depends only on the decision taken by the European Union, taking into account the problem countries that have significant public debt.
- The spread between the ECB-Fed interest rates.
- Differential between interest rates of other national banks.
It is important to understand that the current economic situation is non-standard, as it was affected by the global crisis, the measures taken to stabilize the economy, and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation. Taking into account the conduct of Russia's policy towards the world and Ukraine, the cost of oil, there is an opportunity to count on any changes that are not always possible to predict.